გიორგი ცუცქირიძე: „ერთხელ და სამუდამოდ უნდა გამოვიდეთ ვალების ეკონომიკის მანკიერი წრიდან”

ეკონომიკის ექსპერტმა, ბანკების ასოციაციის აღმასრულებელმა დირექტორმა, გიორგი ცუცქირიძემ, ეროვნული ბანკის პრეზიდენტის, კობა გვენეტაძის, პარლამენტში გამოსვლა დადებითად შეაფასა. ექსპერტი თვლის, რომ  ქვეყნის პირველ ბანკირს აქვს სწორი ხედვა და აქცენტები ქვეყნის მონეტარულ და ფინანსურ პოლიტიკაში. ცუცქირიძეს მოსწონს, რომ კობა გვენეტაძე პარლამენტის წინაშე ორღიანი გამოსვლის დასასრულს შეეხო, ე.წ. “მტაცებლური დაკრედიტების” ნეგატიურ შედეგებს, არ მოერიდა წამყვანი ბანკების კრიტიკას და აჩვენა ის რეალობა, რამაც საცალო დაკრედიტების ექსპანსიამდე და ჭარბვალიანობის პრობლემებამდე მიგვიყვანა.

„ჩემის მხრივ დავძენ, რომ ამ ჭარბვალიანობის პრობლემა აისახა საკრედიტო პორთფელის სტრუქტურაშიც, როდესაც საცალო დაკრედიტების ექსპანსიის შედეგად, თუნდაც ბოლო 3 წლის ჭრილში, ბიზნეს დაკრედიტების ზრდის ტემპები საცალო დაკრედიტებასთან შედარებით ყოველწლიურად მცირდებოდა და გასული წლის მიხედვით 2.5 – ჯერ ჩამორჩებოდა სამომხმარებლო დაკრედიტების ტემპებს, ხოლო წამყვანი 2 ბანკის პორთფელის და, შესაბამისად, შემოსავლების დიდი ნაწილიც (საშუალოდ 70 %-მდე), სწორედ საცალო სესხების გაზრდილ ხვედრით წილზე მოდიოდა. ცალკე საკითხია მისი მოსალოდნელი სოციალური მდგენელი და ჩვენ გავიგეთ, რომ გარდა იმ 700 ათასი მოქალაქისა, რომლებიც უკვე გადახდისუუნარო აღმოჩნდნენ, დღესაც ასი ათასობით ადამიანს მათ შემოსავალთან შედარებით არაადეკვატურად მაღალი სესხები გააჩნიათ!“ – დასძინა მედიაცენტრ „მთავართან“ საუბრისას ცუცქირიძემ.ეკონიმიკის ექსპერტი განმარტავს, რომ დღეს სახეზე გვაქვს საკრედიტო ექსპანსიის ზე-მაღალი ტემპი. დაკრედიტების წლიური ზრდის მაჩვენებელი 5 ჯერ აღემატება  მთლიანი შიდა პროდუქტის ზრდის ტემპებს. ეს კი  მაღალ სისტემურ და სოციალურ რისკებსაც წარმოშობს, მიუხედავად იმისა, რომ საკრედიტო დანაკარგები შეიძლება მაღალი სულაც არ იყოს. ცუცქირიძე კოლეგებს და კრიტიკულად განწყობილ პოლიტიკურ ფრთას მოუწოდებს, ამ ინდიკატორს მიაქციონ ყურადღება.

„რაც შეეხება დაკრედიტების ტემპების შემცირებას. აქაც მკვიდრდება აზრი, თითქოს, საბანკო სექტორში დაკრედიტება მნიშვნელოვნად არის შემცირებული, რამაც მთლიანად ეკონომიკაზე შეიძლება ნეგატიური ზეგავლენა იქონიოს. ნებისმიერი სახის, მით უმეტეს საბანკო სექტორში ამ სახის რეფორმა, ბუნებრივია, მოკლევადიან პერიოდში, გარკვეულწილად აისახება დაკრედიტების ტემპების შემცირებაზე, მაგრამ ის რომ რგულაციების შემოღებიდან 3 თვის თავზე, სიტუაცია კრიტიკულია, არის თითიდან გამოწოვილი და ცალკეული ექსპერტების, არასამთავრობო ორგანიზაციების და ინტერესთა ჯგუფების მიერ არის დიდწილად ორკესტრირებული,“ –  განგვიმარტა ეკონომისტმა.

მისივე განმარტებით, საერთო ტენდენციის და რეგულაციის ზეგავლენის ეფექტის ობიექტურად შესაფასებლად მინიმუმ ერთი წელი უნდა გავიდეს, სულ მცირე 6 თვე ანუ 2 კვარტალი მაინც არის საჭირო ზოგადი ტენდენციის გასაანალიზებლად. ამიტომ ექსპერტი უარყოფით განწყობას ნაადრევს და უსაფუძვლოს უწოდებს.

„რომელ კატასტროფაზე ან თუნდაც იპოთეკური ბაზრის ჩამოშლაზე საუბრობენ, როდესაც თუნდაც 1 აპრილის მდგომარებით, გასული წლის ანალოგიურ პერიოდთან შედარებით, მართალია, გაცვლითი კურსის ეფექტის გარშე, საკრედიტო პორთფელი გაზრდილია 20 %-ით, რაც თუნდაც გასული 3 წლის ანალოგიურ მაჩვენებლებზე ნაკლები არ არის. მაგრამ რაც ყველაზე ნიშანდობლივია, საკრედიტო პორთფელში მშენებლობის დაკრედიტება 26 %-ით, შინამეურნეობებზე გაცემული უზრუნველყოფილი სესხების მოცულობა კი სარეკორდო 32 %-ით არის გაზრდილი, რაც დოლარიზაციის მაჩვენებლის გათვალისწინებით, გაცვლითი კურსის ეფექტსაც თუ გამოვრიცხავთ, მაინც მაღალი, საშუალოდ 18 % და 25 % იქნებ. რაც შეეხება ბიზნეს სესხებს, ზრდა შედარებით მოკრძალებულია და გაცვლითი კურსის ეფექტის გარეშე 16 %-ს, ხოლო გაცვლითი კურსის ეფექტით 8-9 % იქნება,“ – განმატა გიორგი ცუცქირიძემ.

ექსპერტი სამომხმარებლო სესხების მნიშვნელოვან კლებას ამგვარად ხსნის:

„ერთადერთი მნიშვნელოვანი შემცირება არის სამომხმარებლო სესხების ნაწილში, სადაც გარდა არაუზრუნველყოფილი სამომხმარებლო ანუ შედარებით მცირე სესხებისა, შედის განვადებები. გაცვლითი კურსის ეფექტის გარეშე ზრდა 0.2 %-ია. ეს ვარდნა ისედაც მოსალოდნელი იყო“ – განაცხადა მან

ანალიტიკოსების ნაწილი მიიჩნევს, რომ სებ – ის ახალმა რეგულაციებმა პრობლემები შეუქმნა სავაჭრო ქსელებს, ბანკებს მოუწიათ სერვის ცენტრების ნაწილის დახურვა, ლომბარდების ნაწილი გავიდა ბაზრიდან. ამან, თავის მხრივ, გამოიწვია ბიზნესის გაკოტრება, უმუშევრობის ზრდა და ნაკლები გადასახადები ბიუჯეტში. ეს მოცემულობა ბანკების ასოციაციის აღმასრულებელ დირექტორს  გადაუჭრელი პრობლემად არ მიაჩნია და დასძენს, რომ  როგორც ბანკებს, ასევე ბიზნესს მოუწევს ბიზნეს მოდელების გადაწყობა.

„ჩვენ უკვე ვიგებთ, რომ სავაჭრო ობიექტები, რომლებიც საყოფაცხოვრებო ტექნიკით განვადებების პრაქტიკას იყენებდნენ, ნელ-ნელა გადადიან შიდა განვადებების ახალ ბიზნეს მოდელებზე. თუ ჩვენ გვსურს ეკონომიკის გრძელვადიანი სწრაფი ზრდა, რაც დასაქმების და შემოსავლების ზრდის წინაპირობაა, ჩვენ ერთხელ და სამუდამოდ უნდა გამოვიდეთ ვალების ეკონომიკის ამ მანკიერი წრიდან. კობა გვენეტაძის საპარლამებტო გამოსვლაც ამ თვალსაზრისით არის მნიშნელოვანი და ეს რეგულაციებიც ამ მიზანს ემსახურება,“ – განმარტა ცუცქირიძემ.

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149 Thoughts to “გიორგი ცუცქირიძე: „ერთხელ და სამუდამოდ უნდა გამოვიდეთ ვალების ეკონომიკის მანკიერი წრიდან””

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